Forecasting and Predictions

Greetings to all,

The concept of forecasting has to do with being able to predict what will happen in the future with as much accuracy as possible; this is a practice utilized heavily in the business sector. With the uncertain and unforeseen future in business, it is imperative that business owners have some visibility on the potential future their business will face so that they will better be prepared for such a future (Gilliland, 2003).

One infamous prediction concerning innovation that eventually came true was that of mankind traveling to the moon. In 1865 an author by the name of Jules Verne wrote a book titled, “From the Earth to the Moon”; in this book Verne told the story of astronauts that traveled to the moon and returned using a metallic spacecraft. In 1870 Verne followed up his book with a sequel titled, “Around the Moon.” What is interesting about this correlation between fact and fiction are the details Verne got right about the real lunar expedition nearly a century later. The location of the launch, for example, Verne designated to be Florida because they would be able to launch from there with the moon directly overhead.  NASA would later choose Florida as its launch for many of the same reasons. In Verne’s novel, animals were used in a practice launch to determine if human passengers could survive the trip. Likewise, NASA used mice and monkeys in its initial testing (Regas, 2015).

It would seem from these similarities that even though it was a work of fiction, Verne thought through the realities of a lunar expedition and took into account the potential problems as well as ideal conditions for such a launch. In essence, Verne was practicing a sort of forecasting for his work of fiction by troubleshooting the same potential factors NASA would later consider in a real launch.

Two forces that impacted the success of this prediction coming true were that of the Cold War conflict as well as the national pride of the time. In 1957, the Soviet Union launched a satellite called Sputnik into space during the Cold War; at this time the United States and the Soviet Union were not only in an arms race, but with the launching of Sputnik the space race was also brought underway. In addition to the death of John F. Kennedy, who gave his nation the goal of going to the moon by the end of the 1960’s, along with the war in Vietnam happening at the time, the mission to the moon was a welcome distraction for the United States at the time as well as a source of national pride (Siddiqi, 2000).   

References

Gilliland, M. (2003). Fundamental issues in business forecasting. Journal of Business Forecasting Methods & Systems, 22(2), 7-13.

Regas, D. (2015). The science of Jules Verne's fiction . Sky & Telescope , 129(6), 32-37.

Siddiqi, A. A. (2000). Challenge to apollo: The soviet union and the space race, 1945-1974. Washington DC: National Aeronautics and Space Administration .

Scenario Planning VS Traditional Forecasting

Greetings to all,

The concepts of scenario planning, as well as traditional forecasting, are two different methods in which conclusions about future projections are drawn in different ways. The concept of traditional forecasting, for example, is a concept that relies on past as well as present data in order to develop a forecast of how the future will play out. This prediction of the future based off of relevant data from the present and past allows for a limited window into the prediction of future events. In other words, traditional forecasting is well suited for short term planning and predictions but does not take into account long-range planning (Marceau, 2016).

By contrast, the concept of scenario planning is exactly as it sounds: planning for different scenarios that can present themselves in the future based on the current direction an organization is traveling. One key difference from traditional forecasting is that scenario planning takes into account the fact that the current direction the organization is traveling can be diverted in the future into a completely different direction depending on the current situations surrounding the organization. These factors or driving forces are described in the acronym “PEST” by Woody Wade (2012), and “PEST” stands for political, economic, societal, and technological. These driving forces are areas that have the potential to have an unforeseen impact on the direction the organization is trying to move. The organization can then outline the different possible scenarios utilizing the different factors associated with the direction the organization is trying to move. Based on the different factors taken into account with each different scenario or contingency, the organization can take into account trends, essential elements, and critical uncertainties to narrow down the different scenarios into which one that has the potential to be more effective based on a cross comparison between the different scenarios. These scenarios range from likely to extremely unlikely; however, this allows the organization to preplan in the case of an uncertain future in order to be prepared for whatever scenario they are presented with.   This makes scenario planning a much more effective concept for long-term planning, as it prepares those utilizing the method for potential long-term solutions or issues that may arise (Wade, 2012).

The advantage presented by traditional forecasting is that is useful for short-range planning; however, in contrast, it has a great disadvantage when it comes to long-term planning as the uncertain future controlled by unforeseen variables makes it very difficult to forecast the future. The advantage with scenario planning is the preparedness it provides for long-range planning to the one utilizing the method; however, the disadvantage is this method takes a lot of time and thought, initially making it not as fast on the turnaround of data needed by modern-day businesses.      

References

Marceau, D. (2016, August 1 ). The fatal flaw in traditional forecasting methods. Retrieved from Prevedere : https://www.prevedere.com/traditional-forecasting-methods/

Wade, W. (2012). Scenario planning: A field guide to the future . Hoboken, NJ: John Wiley & Sons, Inc.

The Pacemaker

The Pacemaker

Game-changing ideas are those that alter or change the landscape of a particular topic or field. Some of these game-changing ideas have been in the form of inventions that were discovered by accident with unintentional errors. One such game changer is that of the pacemaker, which is responsible for bringing about a serious change for patients suffering from heartbeat irregularities.

The Accident

An electrical engineer by the name of Wilson Greatbatch from the University of Buffalo in the year 1956 was working on a circuit for a Chronic Disease Research Institute to record heart sounds at the time. However while assembling his device, he installed an incorrect resistor into his circuit and as a result, he discovered that his circuit was pulsing at what sounded like a heartbeat. Familiar with heartbeat irregularities, Wilson Greatbatch realized the potential for his mistake; however, it would not be until 1958 when he met with William Chardack from the Buffalo Veterans Administration Hospital and both men successfully tested the device on a dog. Later in 1960, ten pacemakers would be installed into human patients successfully as a result of Greatbatch’s original mistake (Technology Review , 2001 ).    

The Forces that Supported

The advent of the pacemaker filled the demand from a need for medical patients suffering from heart complications in order to regulate their heart beat. In this case, the invention took some time before it could even get off of the ground due to the simple fact of a lack of enthusiasm from the initial time it was discovered. The real push forward was the test conducted in 1958 with William Chardack when they successfully tested the pacemaker on a live dog to determine whether or not the device would work. This was essential to the pacemaker taking off in the medical field, as it solidified the fact that the device was capable of working and serving a benefit to the medical world.

Points Learned

Wilson Greatbatch was an electrical engineer that developed a medical device; it was not until he was able to work with a medical doctor willing to test his device that it would start to gain traction in the medical field. This point is important because it shows that for this particular accidental invention, it took an actual test in order by experts in the medical field before it would be widely accepted. This brings to the forefront the issue that many startup companies face and that is gaining traction with their new idea and bringing it to market (Davila & Epstein, 2014).

    The second point taken is that even though the product was developed and worked, Wilson Greatbatch continued to make improvements on his product and eventually developed a corrosion-free lithium battery which extended the life of his pacemakers from two years to ten years (Technology Review , 2001 ). This was a breakthrough innovation, but Greatbatch continued to improve on his discovery, which is what is called incremental innovation, where the product being developed continues to be refined and made better (Davila & Epstein, 2014). 

Conclusion

In conclusion, the advent of the pacemaker was a breakthrough innovation that helped to greatly benefit a population of patients within the medical field suffering from heart irregularities. The support for this innovation came from an expert in the medical field who helped the inventor successfully test his device causing it to gain traction in the medical field. The inventor then continued an incremental refinement of his device as time went on refining his product for the benefit of the patients.

References

Davila, T., & Epstein, M. J. (2014). The innovation paradox . San Francisco, CA: Berrett-Koehler Publishers, Inc.

Technology Review . (2001 ). Setting the pace. Technology Review , 104(7), 96 .